Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Economic Issues

A friend of mine wrote this note recently: 

I want to start by saying I love America. It truly is the land of opportunity, but because of our success something terrible has been happening gradually over the course of the past few decades. Americans now feel this incredible sense of entitlement and lack of responsibility. Nobody wants to work for a buck anymore. It should be given to them. And when we fail, the government should be there to back us, in some form or another. 

I guess I am directing this more towards college students and recent college graduates. Look at what is happening to our country. This president, which has received your overwhelming support because of his charisma and ability to give a speech, is nationalizing our country. AIG is the insurance arm, Citi is the banking arm, healthcare may soon be nationalized. Capitalism is DYING. Our future prosperity lies in the balance. 

People ask me all the time: is it a good time to get in the market with it so "low". Why is it low? What drives stock prices? A companies earnings which then have a multiple attached to them for future growth. Say companies within the S&P earn $50/share and we attach a 12 multiple to that. That is 600 on the S&P, 20% lower from here. I am not saying that will happen, but people need to know that is a possibility, especially if some of the changes, like elimination of LIFO, take place. LIFO (last in first out) allows companies to account for their cost of goods sold in a manner that if material prices are rising, they can effectively manage how much tax they are paying. The reason the government wants to eliminate LIFO and only use FIFO (first in first out) is when COGS are increasing, companies margins will be higher and more will be paid in taxes.

People should realize what happens when corporate taxes are raised. Companies will leave the U.S. to find tax shelters. Employment will not increase because companies will be unwilling to hire. Historically when the statutory tax rate increases, the effective (actual) tax rate that companies and the wealthy pay decreases. Why? They hire the best accounting firms to play with numbers and they shelter their taxes. Don't be fooled by Warren Buffett. He claims to be in favor of a hirer tax rate, but where have all his billions gone? To a charity to hide from the government. Which brings me to my next point. How can the president propose eliminating deductions for charity and MORTGAGES?!?!!? in the middle of the worst housing crisis in our countries history. It is absurd. 

I can go on for hours, but I just wanted to voice my opinion and maybe get some reactions. This is our country and our future that we are destroying because of our lack of responsibility and sense of entitlement. Great powers have fallen in the past mainly due to their OWN UNWINDING. We have elected a bunch of people who, for the most part are liars and hypocrites, and rose to power through family connections or money. Our best people do not work for the government; not even close. 

In China, the smartest people work for the government because they are compensated for it. Which brings me to my last point of concern. The one child rule dramatically change the demographic of the Chinese to predominately male. What do a bunch of 18-29 year old's that have no job because of a deteriorating global economy and have no families because there are no women? How about join the Army? Keep an eye on China. They have extremely intelligent people in the government, we are dependent on them to buy our debt to finance our nationalization, and they have an Army that we couldn't compete with. 

Just because this is America does not mean all of our problems will just go away. We all have responsibilities and it is time to face them. You don't deserve as much as you think you do.

I suggest every read Larry Kudlow's most recent blog post: http://kudlowsmoneypolitics.blogspot.com/

Also, as my boss says, BUY GUNS


Comments? 

1 comment:

japerez86 said...

Check this out:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/03/09/economic-crisis-obamas/